Predictions 2026: Uncertainty and a Bit-Conned World

The festivities of Christmas and New Year are fast approaching as I sit down to complete my predictions for 2026. Since 2025 was a complex year, as will 2026 be, I will intentionally focus on only a few key aspects. The global GDP growth in 2025 is likely to be around 3.0 to 3.2%, as expected in my paper a year ago, and the growth in 2026 seems likely to be just a shade lower at around 2.8 to 3.1% (without the benefit of front-loading of supply before the Tariffs kicked in, in 2025). The global economy did not sink in spite of political and trade turbulence, but it is likely to splinter.